Coinbase and Glassnode See Crypto Upside in Q3 Amid Regulatory and Macro Tailwinds

In their Q3 2025 market report, David Duong, CFA and Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, along with analysts from blockchain intelligence firm Glassnode, forecast bullish momentum for digital assets driven by favourable macroeconomic and policy shifts.

Fed Policy and Regulatory Breakthroughs Lead the Narrative

According to BittMint findings, the report identifies a confluence of positive signals: easing recession risks, a dovish tilt from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and what analysts call “unprecedented” regulatory progress during H1 2025.

Major milestones include pending U.S. stablecoin legislation and a comprehensive digital asset framework, signaling a maturing regulatory environment. These developments, analysts say, are fostering greater institutional confidence, especially among corporate treasuries now entering the bitcoin market as long-term buyers.

“Crypto’s macro and regulatory backdrop is the most constructive it’s been in years,” the report states, adding that spot ETF inflows and record stablecoin issuance underscore surging market demand.

ETF Inflows and Onchain Strength Fuel Optimism

U.S. spot bitcoin and ether ETFs saw Q2 net inflows of $14.6 billion, a dramatic surge from $627 million in Q1. Bitcoin dominance climbed to 64% by June 30, its highest level since 2021. Meanwhile, total stablecoin supply exceeded $230 billion, hitting an all-time high.

Onchain metrics also reflect growing investor conviction. Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for Bitcoin shifted from “Anxiety” to “Belief,” while the share of BTC supply in profit rose from under 75% to nearly 100%.

Ethereum showed similar strength, with combined ETH and Layer 2 transaction volumes up 7%, while network fees dropped 39%, boosting user activity.

Industry Voices Highlight Structural Shifts

Partner commentary reinforced key demand drivers. Bitwise reported that spot bitcoin ETFs have purchased 225% of all newly mined BTC since January 2024, fueling significant supply-side pressure. Grayscale drew attention to the emerging decentralized AI crypto sector, now valued at approximately $15 billion. Parafi, meanwhile, highlighted Polymarket’s robust volumes following the 2024 U.S. election, signaling growing interest in prediction markets.

Risks Remain, But No Return to 2024 Lows Expected

While Coinbase and Glassnode acknowledge systemic risks related to excessive leverage, they view them as medium-term concerns, unlikely to derail short-term growth. The analysts warn that a sharp Fed easing could amplify bullish sentiment, while geopolitical tensions or a resurgence in trade conflicts may temper gains.

Despite the possibility of short-term corrections, the report concludes that current fundamentals suggest the crypto market is unlikely to revisit the bearish depths of 2024.

Source – news.bitcoin.com
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